On the heels of Haiyan comes word that, while the possibility is remote, another tropical cyclone could form and impact the Philippines within the next couple of days. The central part of the country is still trying to get its bearings after being slammed by Super Typhoon Haiyan last week, a storm that packed estimated sustained winds of 195 MPH when it made landfall on Leyte Island.
Haiyan may have claimed over 10,000 lives -- a staggering total that not many people expected, but doesn't even put the system in the top 35 deadliest tropical cyclones in recorded history. I wrote an article for the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang this morning explaining the reasons behind Haiyan's unthinkable death toll.
Given the death and destruction that the country saw just less than a week ago, even the mention of a second storm has survivors and friends/family of those living in the Philippines sitting on edge. Here is the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's chart showing the areas at risk if/when a tropical cyclone develops (issued about 15 hours ago), with a couple of edits made by me:
There's nothing of concern on satellite imagery at the moment. At 0000z (7PM Eastern...the time the satellite image was taken), there was a large burst of convection over Mindanao (the large island towards the center of the image), but tropical cyclones don't develop over land. There is nothing but a few insignificant cumulus clouds in the area of concern. I haven't been following this too much, but if that burst of convection is the system in question, there's nothing to worry about except for perhaps some flooding if the rainfall rates are heavy enough across the affected islands.
The latest run of the GFS model doesn't show much of anything forming near the Philippines within the next week or so -- if the system shown on the models does develop, it probably wouldn't exceed tropical depression status at the most. The freebie crappy resolution ECMWF (Euro model) page doesn't even show a tropical depression forming near the Philippines during the forecast period.
Based on the current weather models and satellite imagery, there likely won't be a significant tropical cyclone in the country as a result of this system. If a system does develop into something worth watching, it won't do so until it exits the Philippines to the west into the South China Sea and starts moving towards Vietnam.
If this changes, I'll post a new diary.
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